Assuming there are no demand or supply shocks, Charles Edwards is forecasting aircraft production value to grow 7.7% CAGR from $158B in 2024 to $228B in 2029. This forecast assumes some production headwinds starting in the second half of 2025 due to the fire at SPS. However, this forecast does not incorporate any tariff impact on aircraft production (whether due to supplier margin reduction or GDP contraction). We continue to monitor the situation.
