Both Boeing and Airbus continue to struggle delivering aircraft, prompting us to revise our full year aircraft production outlook. We are flattening (A320neo, A350) or reducing (737MAX, 787) our forecast for a number of key programs. In the case of 777X, we moved the entry into service (EIS) date out by one year.
Perhaps not unexpectedly, the biggest impact is on the MAX. A few reasons for lowering our expectations:
- We revised our estimate of 2023 production down by 30 aircraft to 337.
- Q1 2024 deliveries (not necessarily production) were only 66 airplanes (22/month on average). Assuming 66 aircraft were actually produced, Boeing would have to produce ~33/month for each of the next 9 months to achieve our February 2024 forecast of 360.
- Between reworking their entire production and quality systems and labor contract negotiations, we’re skeptical of those rates being achieved for the balance of the year and into 2025.
